This week, in the Canadian Medical Association Journal, are newly published breast cancer screening guidelines from the Canadian Task Force on Preventive Health Care updating the last set from 2001. It is sure to cause an uproar as a first look at the guidelines will have women feeling a certain sense of hopelessness in options for breast cancer screening.
The guidelines breaks down the recommendations by age groups, which does make sense as age is one of the greatest risk for breast cancer. To put things into perspective: of the newly diagnosed cases of breast cancer 80% happen in women over the age of 50 and 28% happen in women over the age of 70.
The authors remind readers that overall, we have to balance outcomes of screening, which include the context of harm in over-diagnosis, over treatment and false positive results that lead to anxiety. These guidelines are also aimed at the average risk woman, which means those with no previous breast cancer, no history of the disease in a first degree relative, no known mutations or previous exposure to chest wall radiation.
The key recommendations include:
- No routine mammography for women aged 40-49 because the risk of cancer is low in this group while the risk of false–positive results and over diagnosis and over treatment is higher
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Routine screening with mammography every two to three years for women aged 50-69
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Routine screening with mammography every two to three years for women aged 70-74
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No screening of average-risk women using MRI
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No routine clinical breast exams or breast self-exam to screen for breast cancer
These guidelines are based on evidence from randomized clinical trials. The authors estimate the risks versus the benefits by age. Here are what the authors state:
- Screening 2,108 women aged 40-49 years once every 2 to 3 years for about 11 years would prevent 1 single death from breast cancer. But it would also result in about 690 women having a false-positive mammogram, and 75 women having an unnecessary biopsy.
- Screening 721 women aged 50 to 69 every 2 to 3 years for about 11 years would prevent one death from breast cancer, but would result in 204 false-positive mammogram and 26 women having an unnecessary biopsy.
Both of these are looking at the NNS or "number needed to screen", and so are focused on the number to prevent one death. If we look at it differently, what happens per 10,000 women screened we would get:
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Screening 10,000 women aged 40-49 every 2 to 3 yrs for 11 yrs would prevent 4.8 deaths from breast cancer, would cause 3,270 false positives and 360 unnecessary biopsies.
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Screening 10,000 women aged 50-69/every 2 to 3 yrs for 11 yrs would prevent 13.9 deaths from breast cancer, would cause 2,820 false positives, and 370 unnecessary biopsies.
We do note that mammography is associated with significant reductions in relative risk of death from breast cancer and these absolute benefits are greater in the 50-69 than in the younger age group who have more false positives. However, when we look at the information provided on the effect of screening with mammography on the relative risk of death from breast cancer by age group and interval, in fact, we see the greater benefit in younger women when screened more frequently albeit at the greater cost of false positives.
When it comes to MRI, no screening is recommended for average risk women. And perhaps even more confusing for women is the advice that neither self exam or routine clinical breast exams is recommended to screen for breast cancer.
The authors put a lot of emphasis on the importance for women to be given the appropriate counselling information to help them make a decision on the balance of acceptance of false positives versus earlier detection. The benefit in survival we are seeing is being attributed to better adjuvant therapies in breast cancer treatment.
The concern I have as a clinician is the actual process of how and who is giving this counselling. There are many sources of information for women, as my colleague Dr. Bryant points out. For many women, if the decision-making process gets too onerous or difficult, many women may make a decision from what they perceive to be a reliable source and those sources may, in my opinion, not be all that reliable.
As a physician and woman, I come at this from two blended perspectives.
I usually do not editorialize in my blogs and seek to provide the information in an understandable context, but for many women these guidelines will be confusing and upsetting. As a woman who was in my 40s, average risk, without family history or a positive gene, a mammography diagnosed me with invasive breast cancer that one done within a 2-year period had missed. Am I to believe that had I waited until I personally noted a difference in my breasts -- even though the advice is not to do routine self breast exams -- I would have done as well?
It is true that my earlier mammograms had resulted in biopsies with negative results, which these guidelines would call "false positives." But that, for me, was tolerable. The guidelines say that for many women that outcome in waiting for the negative biopsy and its results is unacceptable. That is where the counselling piece comes in. I do believe that my mammogram detected my disease at a stage well before I personally could have noted it and I will never know had I waited what the outcome would be.
The bottom line for me is that these are guidelines and as such, are a tool and review of the evidence that looks at populations of women and screening outcomes. In my office, I sit with an individual woman and together we will have to look at the evidence and decide what is right for her as an individual in making the decision as to how to screen, when to screen and how often to screen.
WATCH: My mammogram chat on Canada AM